Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS64 KLZK 070744
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will
hovering at or around normal by early next week.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
 severe thunderstorms possible between today and Monday as a
 progressive pattern continues. The primary hazards today will be
 damaging winds with some large hail possible. A tornado or two is
 also possible this morning across the northern half of the state.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches possible
across portions of Arkansas through Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

An active period of disturbed weather will continue through most
of the forecast period. Regional satellite this morning shows a
two separate MCSs, with the first located over portions of
central and northeast Oklahoma and the second located over north
central and northwestern Oklahoma and south central KS. The first
MCS will likely move into northwestern Arkansas within the next
one to two hours. Ahead of the MCS, a warm moist unstable
environment exists with the latest short term model guidance
showing 1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and bulk shear of 50-60 kts ahead of
the approaching MCS this morning across the northern half of the
state. The primary hazards with the initial MCS will be damaging
winds with some large hail also possible. The second complex
currently over north central/northwestern OK and south central KS
has exhibited bowing structures on regional radars this morning
and hi-res CAM solutions show this will likely continue as this
MCS will likely enter the state around the 11-13z time frame with
the aforementioned hazards likely with this complex but also a
tornado or two is also possible particularly in areas from Little
Rock northward through mid morning before the MCS complex exits
the state around noon today.

The stationary boundary currently over the northern Arkansas
remain nearly stationary ahead of the approaching shortwave
responsible for the couple of MCSs ongoing over portions of the
southern and central Plains this morning. The front will push
southward on Sunday in response to another shortwave within the
flow on Sunday embedded with the periphery of the digging broad
long wave trough dives south into the northern/central Plains with
the closed low through southern Ontario on Sunday, then over the
Great Lakes on Monday helping drive the cold front into southern
Arkansas by Sunday afternoon. Another shortwave embedded within
the west-northwest flow will generate another MCS over portions of
Oklahoma with the MCS likely to move across state Sunday night
into Monday with the primary hazards being damaging winds and some
large hail.

By Tuesday, the broad upper trough with the closed low over
Ontario will move into the Ohio River valley on Tuesday, then the
northeastern US by Wednesday. The surface boundary over southern
Arkansas will begin to retreat northward Tuesday through Wednesday
as a warm front into central Arkansas ahead of another approaching
shortwave trough with the warm front moving into north central
Arkansas by Friday. Additional chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through the Friday
period through the entire forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Flight conditions at northern terminals will likely deteriorate
for a short period as a complex of showers and thunderstorms
enters northwest Arkansas as early as 08z and impacting KHRO and
then KBPK as early as 10-11z with brief drops to MVFR and
intermittent IFR with variable gusts up to 30 knots. The complex
of showers and thunderstorms will rapidly move east-southeast
across Arkansas arriving at central Arkansas terminals as early as
13-14z with brief drops in visibility in the MVFR with intermittent
IFR conditions and gusts up to 30 knots as the complex of showers
and thunderstorms moves through the area. Hi-res CAM solutions
early this morning show the complex of showers and thunderstorm
becoming less congealed and more scattered as they arrive at KPBF
and KLLQ around 15-17z with brief drops in visibility and gusty
thunderstorms winds possible. VFR conditions will return to all
terminals by around 20z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  67  87  69 / 100  40  10  30
Camden AR         93  70  89  69 /  40  60  30  50
Harrison AR       81  63  86  65 /  90  20   0  30
Hot Springs AR    91  68  91  68 /  70  60  10  40
Little Rock   AR  86  71  89  71 /  80  50  10  30
Monticello AR     93  72  89  72 /  50  60  40  40
Mount Ida AR      89  68  91  67 /  70  60  10  40
Mountain Home AR  81  63  86  65 / 100  20   0  40
Newport AR        85  68  87  69 /  90  40  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     91  70  89  70 /  60  60  20  30
Russellville AR   86  67  89  69 /  90  30   0  30
Searcy AR         85  67  89  69 /  90  50  10  20
Stuttgart AR      88  71  88  71 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly